Presidential elections in Zimbabwe

It was confirmed that Morgan Tsvangirai accepted a second round for the presidential elections of Zimbabwe.
In the first round, neither Robert Mugabe (43.2%) nor Tsvangirai (47.9%) obtained the absolute majority.
First, Tsvangirai insisted that a second round should be monitored by independent international observers, however, when Mugabe stated that this demand had to be dropped otherwise resulting in another presidential term for Mugabe, Tsvangirai gave in.

It's very obvious what's going to happen next. When we observe history, Zimbabwe has known fraud and violence during any presidential election since Mugabe grabbed power. Why will it be any different this time? Members of the opposition, the Movement of Democratic Change (MDC) have been taken into custody by Mugabe's security forces and the police; they are brutally tortured and charged with treason.
It's all crystal clear: Mugabe abuses his country and its people. He wants to keep his power no matter what.
Democratic elections are a farce because there is no independent monitoring of the process. We have seen it many times in the past: elections in Zimbabwe are fraudulent. I've been to Zimbabwe in 2001 and all I heard was people saying: we will vote against Mugabe during the next elections. The opposite happened. Mugabe is not afraid of using any possible way to keep power: electoral fraud, intimidation and torture.

In may 2008, there were three candidates running for president. Besides Tsvangirai and Mugabe, it seemed that Simba Makoni would take a chance.
Now here is the plot: Makoni was minister of finance during the period 2000-2002 under Mugabe and has been a ZANU-PF member (Mugabe's party) until he ran for president as an independent candidate. In the first round of the elections he gained 8.3% of the votes. Since none of the candidates got more than fifty percent of the votes a second round is needed. In the second round, Mugabe will win: 43.2% + 8.3% = 51.5%. Tsvangirai will have a bit more than 48% and there will be several tenth of a percent of blank votes. The explanation that ZANU-PF will have for this result is the fact that the Makoni voters switched to Mugabe instead. Mugabe will be president of Zimbabwe for the rest of his life.

Update on May 16th 2008: The media just released the news that the second round will be on june 27th which is six weeks from now. Plenty of time for Mugabe to manipulate the process...